Fitch revises 2025 outlooks for key corporate sectors amid global trade war

Fitch Ratings has downgraded its 2025 outlooks for global leveraged finance, North American corporates, and 12 industry sectors—mostly global or North America-focused—from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ in its latest mid-year update. The revisions are primarily driven by the ongoing global trade war and expectations of weakening macroeconomic conditions in the second half of the year.

According to Fitch, persistent trade tensions, uncertainty around future U.S. policy direction, and the risk of retaliatory measures from other regions are expected to exert significant pressure on various corporate sectors. The challenges are particularly acute in industries with high international exposure, cross-border trade reliance, or complex supply chains.

Notable downgrades include sectors tied to consumer spending, such as global alcoholic beverages and U.S. retail, restaurants, and consumer products. Fitch also lowered its outlook for sectors tied to natural resources, including global oil and gas, as well as chemicals. In healthcare, the global medical devices and diagnostic products sector, along with pharmaceuticals and biotech, also saw outlooks move to ‘deteriorating.’

The outlook for global leveraged finance was revised downward due to increasing risk for lower-rated companies. However, Fitch noted that most corporate sector outlooks remain ‘neutral’ for now, as the impact of higher tariffs has been gradual and partially mitigated by corporate responses. Still, the agency warned that additional downgrades could follow in the second half of 2025 if tariffs rise further or policy instability continues to weigh on profitability and revenue growth.

Source: Fitch Ratings