Outlook for Poland’s Investment Land Market in 2025: Gradual Recovery and Increased Selectivity

The Polish investment land market in 2025 is expected to focus on regaining stability rather than delivering high-profile transactions. Although recent months have seen more deals reach completion, these are typically preceded by thorough assessments by buyers, reflecting a more cautious and analytical market environment.

The current revival in investment activity does not signal a return to the intensity seen in 2021 and 2022. Factors such as the absence of government support programmes, inconsistent planning policies, and restrictive lending practices continue to shape a selective and measured approach by investors and financial institutions.

Today’s market is characterised by project-specific capital deployment. Demand is concentrated around segments with strong fundamentals, including private rental sector (PRS) developments, urban logistics, mixed-use schemes in regional cities, and residential construction, which continues to attract considerable interest.

Local Capital and Regional Investment Activity

After a prolonged period of market hesitation, many investors are actively exploring opportunities again. While some signs of optimism have returned, the overall investment landscape remains more restrained. A higher volume of transactions is anticipated in the second half of 2025.

Although Western European capital is expected to play a larger role, current activity is primarily driven by investors from neighbouring countries such as the Czech Republic, Germany, and the Baltic states. Polish private investors—many of whom are not directly linked to development firms—are also playing an increasingly prominent role, contributing to a more stable and diversified market structure.

At Walter Herz, we have seen growing interest in pooled capital initiatives. Recently, we raised over PLN 50 million from private individuals for land acquisition projects. Acting as transaction advisors, we take on responsibilities related to regulatory and planning procedures, while providing transparency and clarity to our investors. Our current land portfolio in cities such as Warsaw, Poznań, and the Tri-City reflects growing demand from both institutional and private investors.

Global Factors and Shifting Investment Priorities

Recent developments in global trade, particularly tensions between major economies, have influenced Poland’s land investment market. Poland continues to attract interest due to its relatively stable economic outlook and strategic geographic location. Warehouse space, data centres, energy storage sites, and other commercial uses are once again under active review by investors.

Ongoing trade disputes—especially between the U.S. and China—are driving changes in global supply chains. This has contributed to an increase in enquiries for logistics space in Poland, including interest from Chinese firms seeking alternative locations for European operations.

Despite these global uncertainties, Poland remains an appealing option for foreign investors. The country’s forecasted GDP growth of 3.4% for 2025–2026 and ongoing inflows of foreign direct investment position the market as a relatively safe and stable environment for land-related capital placements.

Residential development land and agricultural plots with conversion potential are particularly in demand, especially in areas with high urbanisation prospects. However, concerns persist around the unpredictability of planning policies and permitting timelines, which continue to affect investment feasibility.

Market Activity and Transaction Trends

Investors from Turkey and the Mediterranean region are showing growing interest in the Polish market. These groups typically pursue smaller, lower-risk projects, often prioritising price competitiveness. In recent weeks, Walter Herz has completed four sale transactions in Warsaw, demonstrating consistent market activity even amid cautious sentiment.

Planning Reform and Legislative Outlook

Planning and regulatory changes are playing an increasingly important role in shaping investor behaviour. One of the persistent challenges in Poland is the limited coverage of local spatial development plans (MPZP), which currently apply to only 30–40% of the country. As a result, many developers must rely on administrative zoning decisions (WZ), which are often unpredictable and time-consuming.

Recent government efforts to implement General Plans have been accompanied by repeated revisions and delays, creating further uncertainty. For the land investment market to gain clarity and momentum, there is a need for simplified, transparent, and digitalised planning and permitting procedures.

Reforms to Poland’s construction law could support market growth, particularly by removing the requirement for environmental decisions in low-impact projects—such as logistics and service facilities—which often face lengthy delays. Establishing a clear classification of investments exempt from environmental review could streamline the approval process.

Other proposed solutions include nationwide digitisation of land and mortgage registers and the introduction of a centralised “white paper” listing investment-ready land parcels. Removing the requirement for ministerial approval when converting lower-grade agricultural land (Class IV and V) into development sites could also improve the pace and efficiency of land transactions.

Conclusion

The outlook for 2025 points to a steady but cautious recovery of Poland’s investment land market. While global economic factors and domestic planning constraints continue to influence the pace of activity, selective investor interest remains strong—particularly in projects with clear market demand. Continued legislative reform and administrative simplification will be essential for unlocking the full potential of this sector.

Author: Emil Domeracki, Partner, Board Member, Land Development Advisory, Walter Herz